Please also note that there will likely be some shows left off this list. I'll mostly focus on new shows, but there might be some returning favorites as well.
For credentials sake, you should know that I follow show ratings week-to-week, keep a going list of ratings for all new shows and for returning shows who might be in trouble. I've been doing this long enough that I have a pretty good sense for what kind of ratings a show needs to survive, adjusting for network, timeslot, financial investment, and any number of other factors. It's kind of pitiful how well-versed I am in this.
Anyway, on with the shows!
**EXTREMELY SAFE ZONE**
(SHOWS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN PICKED UP FOR A FULL SEASON):
- NEW GIRL
I can't say I'm over the moon about this show, but it's ratings are impossible to argue with. I had a feeling the show would do well, but holy shit. Apparently there are even more doe-eyed Zooey lovers out there than I thought! Not only were the key demo numbers impressive by even Fox's standards, but it routinely outpaces Glee. Not only does this speak to New Girl's success, but it also speaks to Glee's precipitous fall. Don't get me wrong, Glee's demo numbers are still more than solid, but I'm sure the execs at Fox were shocked. Even with the baseball-induced hiatus, this show should do just fine in the long run. - UP ALL NIGHT
This pick-up has more to do with NBC's pathetic-ness than with the ratings. The numbers have been good by NBC standards, but if this show were on CBS, it wouldn't have made it past the second week. - 2 BROKE GIRLS
This one is just depressing. This show is awful, but it's ratings are insanely high. Even by CBS standards, which are ridiculously higher than NBC's. - RINGER
Only on the CW, folks. The ratings are bad, really bad, but when you're on the CW, it doesn't matter so much. I've been trying to give this show another chance, having heard it got a lot better, but only time will tell. I would have said that this pick-up had more to do with SMG's high profile than anything else, but that was until... - HART OF DIXIE
Yeah, this was a surprise, even for the CW. This show's ratings are only a tick above Nikita's (which airs in the worst time slot ever conceived). Even by CW standards, I didn't think they'd keep this one. At the very least, I thought they'd give it another week of numbers before they made a decision. I wouldn't care, but the more shows the CW picks up, the more in danger Nikita is. Or, I guess looking at it another way, if they're willing to keep this, they're willing to keep anything. - THE SECRET CIRCLE
No brainer. It's ratings aren't great by most broadcasting standards, but they're better than 90% of the CW's slate. It's no TVD, but it's hanging in there. - WHITNEY
Given NBC's "barely above the CW" standards, I can't say this was a total surprise, but the speed with which it came was a bit of a shock. After two weeks of ratings freefall, they give it a full-season order? I don't know what is being smoked over at NBC, but this show is terrible and its ratings are only getting worse. But, now they're stuck with it. Smart.
**SAFE ZONE**
(SHOWS WITH GOOD NUMBERS, BUT HAVEN'T BEEN PICKED-UP FOR A FULL SEASON (OR ANOTHER SEASON) YET):
- SUBURGATORY
It's only aired a couple of episodes so far, but the numbers are solid. If it stays on trend, it will certainly get a full-season pick-up. [UPDATE: With last night's ratings totals in, this show is a lock for a full-season. Announcement should come any day.] - TERRA NOVA
Okay, to say this show is "safe" is a bit of a misnomer. It's numbers aren't what Fox had hoped for, but it's initial order was for 13 episodes. When speaking in those terms, in spite of the ratings, I'm willing to wager it will air all 13 episodes. That said, while the numbers for its first two episodes were good and showed no signs of slipping, there was a pretty big drop off for episode 3. If that continues, even the small order won't save it. - PARENTHOOD
Yeah, yeah, it's not a new show, but it's perennially on the bubble, so I thought you fans would want to know that it's going to be just fine. No, it's numbers aren't great, but they're decent by NBC standards, and more importantly, they're consistent week to week. In short, it's doing fine. - THE GOOD WIFE
On any other network, it's numbers would be stellar, but for CBS, they key demo ratings are disappointing. Why is it safe then, you ask? Because it's the best show on network TV, the only network drama that receives any kind of critical or awards acclaim at all, and because CBS likes to have bragging rights. What's more, CBS is so insanely successful that it can afford to have a critical darling under its wing. The numbers have been fairly low for CBS, but they've been consistent, even in spite of the new timeslot. No worries, Eli and Kalinda aren't going anywhere. - REVENGE
I think the ratings have finally settled and they're in a range that ABC can definitely get behind. ABC is almost as pitiful as NBC and it can't be too choosy, so to have a show genuinely do well is a no-brainer. Revenge can even stand to go a little lower and still be just fine. [UPDATE: With last night's ratings totals in, this show is a lock for a full-season. Announcement should come any day.] - LAST MAN STANDING
Okay, so it's only aired one episode, but they numbers were very, very good for ABC. The show, unfortunately, is very, very bad in every conceivable regard, but when has that ever stopped anybody? I'm hoping for a shocking drop-off next week, but I doubt it. Even if it's numbers were cut in half, it would probably be fine. I'll pause while everyone goes and weeps for humanity. - HAPPY ENDINGS
I'm as shocked as you are. After getting a miraculous pick-up after last season, something rivaling Biblical times, this show is back and is actually doing pretty well. It looks like in the shuffle of things, Happy Endings has come out on top (well, middle really, but you know what I mean). - CASTLE
Numbers could be better, but ABC is fully invested in this one. It's not going anywhere. Even if Nathan Fillion's track record would suggest otherwise. - GLEE
A lot of people have been wondering about Glee's ratings after the disaster that was season 2, so I'm including it on the list. For the record, the numbers have been noticeably lower and have been sliding a bit week-to-week. That said, it's key demos are still among the highest in the biz and the show isn't going anywhere. It has actually been better this year, but that doesn't seem to be enough to bring back all the folks who broke up with it after last season. Can't says I blame you.
(SHOWS THAT ARE DOWN, BUT NOT OUT... YET):
- PAN AM
This show started off flying high in the ratings and looked to be ABC's saving grace from the loss of Desperate Housewives, but it's numbers have been in freefall since the premiere. It's a shame, because I'm really enjoying this one, but if its numbers go any lower, it's going to be in serious trouble. I think the only thing that will save it is ABC's need to save face and their growing acceptance as being "barely better than NBC"... - NIKITA
Oh, my darling Nikita. This show has always struggled a bit even by CW standards, but now that it's stranded in the worst timeslot ever, I'm worried. Anchoring Friday nights? Yikes. I'm sure the CW had low expectations, but still. It's numbers honestly aren't that much worse than the rest of the CW's slate, but with Chuck starting up in a couple of weeks, I'm worried that Nikita's numbers will sink even lower. I think the show's saving grace will be that this is the kind of show that does well abroad and may make money for the network in the long run. Fingers crossed! - PRIME SUSPECT
The numbers aren't good, at all really, but they're holding steady and NBC is desperate. They just ordered 6 more scripts, so that bodes well for the show, even if not for NBC as a whole. I'm actually enjoying this one to an extent, so I'm happy to see it'll be around for a while. - HARRY'S LAW
This one is the real head-scratcher. Based on key demo ratings, this show would almost be at home on the CW, garnering worse numbers than The Vampire Diaries (although it does do okay in total numbers). NBC just ordered 6 more scripts, but I think it was a bad call. I have a feeling NBC sees this as their The Good Wife, hoping it'll bring some reputability to the network. Sorry NBC, it will not. - UNFORGETTABLE
CBS loves its crime procedurals, but viewers aren't exactly flocking to this piece of shit, and they know it. It's numbers have been going steadily down and even if it stays where it is, it's going to have a hard time. It may get a full season, but I'd be shocked if it got a second year. I guess watching Poppy Montgomery stare off into space just isn't as riveting as CBS hoped it would be... Note to Poppy, save the money you spend on lip injections and spend it on a dialect coach. - PERSON OF INTEREST
Its future looks rosier than Unforgettable's, but only by a bit. The numbers are okay for now, but they've been going steadily down. It's an expensive show to produce, but it has an impressive pedigree. If it can stay were it is, I think it'll be fine. If it goes much lower, it'll be in trouble. I think it's going to come down to one or the other and this will get picked up and Unforgettable will get the axe.
(SHOWS THAT SHOULD PROBABLY REVIEW THEIR WILLS):
- CHARLIE'S ANGELS
Not long for this world, peeps. I'm guessing it'll be the next to get cancelled. Terrible show, terrible ratings. I'm kind of surprised it hasn't already bitten the big one. - A GIFTED MAN
Even with a Friday timeslot, there's no saving this one. CBS will likely give it the axe the moment it has something to fill the timeslot with, if not sooner. - FRINGE
Again, Friday can only forgive so much. Fox seems to be behind this one though, so I guess a miracle could happen. In my heart of hearts, I suspect this will be its last season, but I'm guessing it'll be a full season.
(SHOWS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN CANCELED):
- THE PLAYBOY CLUB
This one never stood a chance, and it has nothing to do with the PTC. If anything, the right wing uproar is the only thing that brought in any ratings at all. This show just couldn't work on network TV. The leads were lackluster for the most part and the writing was sloppy. - FREE AGENTS
Even though the ratings sucked, I thought this one would last a little longer by simple virtue of being a half-hour comedy... I was wrong. Go forth, Giles, onto better gigs. - HOW TO BE A GENTLEMAN
Hats off to CBS for pulling the plug on this piece of shit after only one episode. On any other network, the ratings would have been cause for celebration, but CBS has a higher threshold and the luxury of axing anything it chooses. - H8R
I never saw a single episode... and neither did anyone else. You get canceled by the CW, you know you've got problems. The CW doesn't do a whole lot right, but getting rid of this horrendous assault on television was one of the best moves in recent history.
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