Moving on.
The networks won't make final decisions about which shows will survive and which shows have been crushed under the weight of timeslot competition, incompetent management, and network tomfoolery until the middle of May, but here's how things are shaking down so far. I'm starting with NBC because it's far and away the saddest and sorriest among the big four. It's like eating all the tasteless, cardboardy, multigrainy cereal bits so you can save the marshmallows till last. NBC is in trouble, folks. We all hoped that the removal of Jeff Zucker would revitalize the network, but it's going to be an uphill battle. Having ousted Zucker and his reign of terror, NBC is now comprised largely of Showtime vets who are trying to invigorate the NBC as they had Showtime. Good luck with that. This is network TV and the outlandish, envelope-pushing programming that made Showtime a major player simply has no chance on any of the big four, least of all a network that's already in trouble. Network TV simply imposes too many limits and restrictions to allow for much creativity and programming
is suffering as a result. Unique, out of the box thinking is actively punished on network TV and until the new brass at NBC cast off other notions, I think NBC is going to continue to struggle. (Frankly, any network that would shelve my darling Community is going to get a stern talking to from me, but that doesn't mean I'm entirely biased.) Couple that with the fact that the network has pretty much nothing in the way of a strong lead-in for new blood and you've got a recipe for disaster. Er, more disaster. Case in point, of all of NBC's fall pilots, only a vanishingly small number will survive.Henceforth, on with the cardboardy disappointments...
Wait, quick note: I usually categorize by "how screwed are they?", but this year I'm just going to go alphabetically. These predictions are based on my own system of gauging ratings, network expectations, and a keen, truly absurd understanding of how TV works. I'm not infallible, by any stretch, but most of my predictions are spot on. That said, I've been shocked before and I'll be shocked again. Take these with a grain of salt and if you'd rather wait till May to get definitive answers, hats off to you.
The obvious ones won't get much rhapsodizing, but the tougher calls will require some explanation...
- 30 Rock
Safe: Will certainly be renewed for next season. Even if the actual quality of the show has been slipping for the past couple of seasons, it's one of NBC's few safe bets. - Are You There Chelsea?
Why no, no she isn't. This one's a goner. Even by NBC's pitifully low standards, she doesn't stand a chance. Basically: Dead. - Awake
Fairly Dead: This one is a little too early to call definitively (they've only had two eps to date), but I don't think it's long for this world. Or the other one. It had a good pilot and an intriguing concept, but it would have been better suited to a mini-series or a movie. I've enjoyed the first two episodes, but don't think it will last. Two eps in and the ratings are in a downward slope that I don't see stopping in time to save the show. I'll be really surprised if it lives. UPDATE: The numbers just came back for episode 3 and they held rock solid with episode 2. Granted there was less competition last night than usual, but that's still impressive. I'm upgrading their condition to: Tough Call. - The Biggest Loser
Safe: Oh, it'll be back all right. And, given what other gems NBC has to work with, I suspect you'll have to endure a solid 17 minutes of beeping and two commercial breaks before the weight is revealed. All to the shocked horror of those who have slow-motioned us into the break. - Celebrity Apprentice
Safe: See above with The Biggest Loser, substitute "beeping" with "bad hair and incompetence." It'll be back for sure. Sadly, sadly. - Chuck
Dead: Finally sloughs off this mortal coil. The series ended back in January after surviving for two seasons too long. God, how I used to love that show. Sad to see what it turned into. Cancellation was the only humane thing to do. - Community
Safe: This might be the fan girl talking, but I'm betting Community will be back for season 4. It's ratings are pretty bad, even for NBC, but I think the network may have realized that that has more to do with the timeslot than anything else. They plopped 30 Rock into that time period and it struggled hardcore as well. The hiatus put us all on edge, but the fact that they never stopped production speaks volumes. At the end of the day, the show is about 1 season away from hitting the golden 100 episodes and I think NBC will let them get there. Once a show hits 100 episodes (usually), it can be sold into syndication. That's a cash prize that NBC won't pass up. The value of selling it into syndication will more than make up for producing one more season of the show. Henceforth, I'm cautious, but optimistic. I may be going out on a bit of a limb, but I'm putting this one in the safe column. Six seasons and a movie! (Community returns this Thursday, March 15th, to much applause.) - Free Agents
Long Dead: This sucker barely made it three episodes before biting the dust. Yet another feather in NBC's cap. - Grimm
Safe: I'm as shocked as you are. As the season began, never did I think a supernatural genre show slated for the Friday night death slot would be one of the very, very few success stories for the network. Given its genre and time period, the show is doing extremely well. Hell, for NBC, its ratings are pretty decent for any time period. To boot, it's actually quite a good show. It's not often that the A-plots keep me entertained, but Grimm does a very nice job. The ongoing story could be a lot stronger and more present, but all in all, it's a solid story-of-the-week kind of show. In all honesty, when it comes to the recent fairy tale trend, I daresay Grimm does a better job than Once Upon a Time. The fact that I quite enjoy Grimm but can barely bring myself to watch Once anymore really says it all. I'll be surprised if it doesn't come back. - Harry's Law
Tough Call: Here's the conundrum. Ratings-wise, this show is an absolute disaster. That said, it was a disaster last year and NBC kept it. All I can think is that NBC likes having a show that gets nominated for something, anything, and wants to hold onto it. I guess the fact that it doesn't actually deserve to get nominated for anything never crossed their minds when handing out pink slips. In my heart of hearts, I think it will be canceled (it's doing even worse in its new time period than its last), but NBC might not have anything else to fall back on. Final prediction: canceled. - Law & Order: SVU
Safe: Network TV never met a crime procedural it didn't like and NBC is no exception. I'm sure this will be back. Again. For what I have to assume is season 38. - The Office
Safe: In spite of the fact that it stopped being consistently funny (or even occasionally funny) several seasons ago, its ratings are among NBC's best. The Office isn't going anywhere, even if the majority of the regular cast is jumping ship as soon as possible. - Parenthood
Pretty Safe: The ratings aren't good, but I think this one will be back for next year. They had a truncated season this year to accommodate a new slate of pilots and because, well, NBC struggles, but I'm confident it'll get renewed. Said new pilots have pretty much fizzled so far, so even though Parenthood's ratings aren't great, they're consistently pretty decent. For a network in complete and total turbulence, moderate, but consistent is more than they can hope for most of the time. The season finale was written so that it could serve as a series finale, but I don't think it needed to. Way to hedge your bets though. - Parks & Recreation
Safe: This show gets used and abused by the network, but it's a quality show with decent ratings (again, by NBC standards). It'll be back. - The Playboy Club
Long Dead: Yet another glittering jewel in NBC's crown, this half-baked farce was on a network with no balls whatsoever... which is kind of a liability when your show is ostensibly about sex. - Prime Suspect
Dead: On another network, in another time, I think this show could have done well. Perhaps on CBS, paired with one of their heavy-hitter crime procedurals, Prime Suspect could have made a real go of it. As is, on NBC, paired with... god, I can't even remember what it was paired with, but I recall it made no sense, it didn't stand a chance. It was actually a pretty good little show and I'm sad to see it end so quickly and ignominiously. Maybe it was the hat's fault... (I liked the hat, but I'm in the distinct minority here.) - Smash
Pretty Safe: Most websites will tell you that it's too early to tell or that it's a tough call, but I think it'll make it. We are legitimately only six episodes in, and the numbers aren't as high as NBC would like, but they're still higher than just about any other show on the network. More importantly, the number seem to have leveled off in the 2.5ish range, and for NBC, I'd say that's more than good enough to grant renewal. Time will tell, but if it stays within a couple of points of that key demo rating, it'll be back. - The Firm
Dead: It may not be official, but this one's a goner. It premiered to some of the lowest numbers any of the big four have ever seen for a primetime drama and it only went down from there. I'd be positively shocked if this got renewed. From where I'm sitting, it's already dead. - Up All Night
Safe: It's one of their better-performing shows and it's a half-hour sitcom. Barring some sort of ratings disaster, it should be just fine. The fact that they ordered extra episodes this season also bodes well for next season. - The Voice
SAFE: This is far and away NBC's best performer on any night, in any time period, in any genre. It's really the only show keeping the network afloat, so it will definitely be back, and, if NBC can find a way, will be even longer than it is now. - Whitney
Fairly Dead: I can see where some genius at NBC might think keeping this show is a good idea, but I doubt it. Its ratings have been in free-fall since the pilot and the critical backlash doesn't help. It might eek out a renewal, but I'm putting my prediction safely in the canceled camp.
