Fall Ratings: Should you be worried?

I wasn't sure how to structure this post and the next one... I wanted to do a post which looked at the ratings for shows (assessing survival prospects) and I wanted to do one with the shows that I'm keeping and the ones I'm kicking to the curb. I was determined to make these two separate posts, but they kept overlapping. I'll separate as best I can, but bear with me, there may be some redundancy...

Please also note that there will likely be some shows left off this list. I'll mostly focus on new shows, but there might be some returning favorites as well.

For credentials sake, you should know that I follow show ratings week-to-week, keep a going list of ratings for all new shows and for returning shows who might be in trouble. I've been doing this long enough that I have a pretty good sense for what kind of ratings a show needs to survive, adjusting for network, timeslot, financial investment, and any number of other factors. It's kind of pitiful how well-versed I am in this.

Anyway, on with the shows!

**EXTREMELY SAFE ZONE**
(SHOWS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN PICKED UP FOR A FULL SEASON):

• NEW GIRL
  I can't say I'm over the moon about this show, but it's ratings are impossible to argue with. I had a feeling the show would do well, but holy shit. Apparently there are even more doe-eyed Zooey lovers out there than I thought! Not only were the key demo numbers impressive by even Fox's standards, but it routinely outpaces Glee. Not only does this speak to New Girl's success, but it also speaks to Glee's precipitous fall. Don't get me wrong, Glee's demo numbers are still more than solid, but I'm sure the execs at Fox were shocked. Even with the baseball-induced hiatus, this show should do just fine in the long run.
  
  
• UP ALL NIGHT
  This pick-up has more to do with NBC's pathetic-ness than with the ratings. The numbers have been good by NBC standards, but if this show were on CBS, it wouldn't have made it past the second week.
  
  
• 2 BROKE GIRLS
  This one is just depressing. This show is awful, but it's ratings are insanely high. Even by CBS standards, which are ridiculously higher than NBC's.
  
  
• RINGER
  Only on the CW, folks. The ratings are bad, really bad, but when you're on the CW, it doesn't matter so much. I've been trying to give this show another chance, having heard it got a lot better, but only time will tell. I would have said that this pick-up had more to do with SMG's high profile than anything else, but that was until...
  
  
• HART OF DIXIE
  Yeah, this was a surprise, even for the CW. This show's ratings are only a tick above Nikita's (which airs in the worst time slot ever conceived). Even by CW standards, I didn't think they'd keep this one. At the very least, I thought they'd give it another week of numbers before they made a decision. I wouldn't care, but the more shows the CW picks up, the more in danger Nikita is. Or, I guess looking at it another way, if they're willing to keep this, they're willing to keep anything.
  
  
• THE SECRET CIRCLE
  No brainer. It's ratings aren't great by most broadcasting standards, but they're better than 90% of the CW's slate. It's no TVD, but it's hanging in there.
  
  
• WHITNEY
  Given NBC's "barely above the CW" standards, I can't say this was a total surprise, but the speed with which it came was a bit of a shock. After two weeks of ratings freefall, they give it a full-season order? I don't know what is being smoked over at NBC, but this show is terrible and its ratings are only getting worse. But, now they're stuck with it. Smart.
  
  

Now that we've moved past the shows that have already gotten the definitive green light, we're headed into more speculative territory. Please bear in mind that it's still early on, so these predictions are just that. Predictions. Anything can happen, folks. Based on ratings and everything else, here's how the new shows (and some old shows) are doing. To be honest with you, most shows that haven't been picked-up already are at least sort of in trouble, but here goes...

**SAFE ZONE**
(SHOWS WITH GOOD NUMBERS, BUT HAVEN'T BEEN PICKED-UP FOR A FULL SEASON (OR ANOTHER SEASON) YET):

• SUBURGATORY
  It's only aired a couple of episodes so far, but the numbers are solid. If it stays on trend, it will certainly get a full-season pick-up. [UPDATE: With last night's ratings totals in, this show is a lock for a full-season. Announcement should come any day.]
  
  
• TERRA NOVA
  Okay, to say this show is "safe" is a bit of a misnomer. It's numbers aren't what Fox had hoped for, but it's initial order was for 13 episodes. When speaking in those terms, in spite of the ratings, I'm willing to wager it will air all 13 episodes. That said, while the numbers for its first two episodes were good and showed no signs of slipping, there was a pretty big drop off for episode 3. If that continues, even the small order won't save it.
  
  
• PARENTHOOD
  Yeah, yeah, it's not a new show, but it's perennially on the bubble, so I thought you fans would want to know that it's going to be just fine. No, it's numbers aren't great, but they're decent by NBC standards, and more importantly, they're consistent week to week. In short, it's doing fine.
  
  
• THE GOOD WIFE
  On any other network, it's numbers would be stellar, but for CBS, they key demo ratings are disappointing. Why is it safe then, you ask? Because it's the best show on network TV, the only network drama that receives any kind of critical or awards acclaim at all, and because CBS likes to have bragging rights. What's more, CBS is so insanely successful that it can afford to have a critical darling under its wing. The numbers have been fairly low for CBS, but they've been consistent, even in spite of the new timeslot. No worries, Eli and Kalinda aren't going anywhere.
  
  
• REVENGE
  I think the ratings have finally settled and they're in a range that ABC can definitely get behind. ABC is almost as pitiful as NBC and it can't be too choosy, so to have a show genuinely do well is a no-brainer. Revenge can even stand to go a little lower and still be just fine. [UPDATE: With last night's ratings totals in, this show is a lock for a full-season. Announcement should come any day.]
  
  
• LAST MAN STANDING
  Okay, so it's only aired one episode, but they numbers were very, very good for ABC. The show, unfortunately, is very, very bad in every conceivable regard, but when has that ever stopped anybody? I'm hoping for a shocking drop-off next week, but I doubt it. Even if it's numbers were cut in half, it would probably be fine. I'll pause while everyone goes and weeps for humanity.
  
  
• HAPPY ENDINGS
  I'm as shocked as you are. After getting a miraculous pick-up after last season, something rivaling Biblical times, this show is back and is actually doing pretty well. It looks like in the shuffle of things, Happy Endings has come out on top (well, middle really, but you know what I mean).
  
  
• CASTLE
  Numbers could be better, but ABC is fully invested in this one. It's not going anywhere. Even if Nathan Fillion's track record would suggest otherwise.
  
  
• GLEE
  A lot of people have been wondering about Glee's ratings after the disaster that was season 2, so I'm including it on the list. For the record, the numbers have been noticeably lower and have been sliding a bit week-to-week. That said, it's key demos are still among the highest in the biz and the show isn't going anywhere. It has actually been better this year, but that doesn't seem to be enough to bring back all the folks who broke up with it after last season. Can't says I blame you.
  
  

**DANGER ZONE**
(SHOWS THAT ARE DOWN, BUT NOT OUT... YET):

• PAN AM
  This show started off flying high in the ratings and looked to be ABC's saving grace from the loss of Desperate Housewives, but it's numbers have been in freefall since the premiere. It's a shame, because I'm really enjoying this one, but if its numbers go any lower, it's going to be in serious trouble. I think the only thing that will save it is ABC's need to save face and their growing acceptance as being "barely better than NBC"...
  
  
• NIKITA
  Oh, my darling Nikita. This show has always struggled a bit even by CW standards, but now that it's stranded in the worst timeslot ever, I'm worried. Anchoring Friday nights? Yikes. I'm sure the CW had low expectations, but still. It's numbers honestly aren't that much worse than the rest of the CW's slate, but with Chuck starting up in a couple of weeks, I'm worried that Nikita's numbers will sink even lower. I think the show's saving grace will be that this is the kind of show that does well abroad and may make money for the network in the long run. Fingers crossed!
  
  
• PRIME SUSPECT
  The numbers aren't good, at all really, but they're holding steady and NBC is desperate. They just ordered 6 more scripts, so that bodes well for the show, even if not for NBC as a whole. I'm actually enjoying this one to an extent, so I'm happy to see it'll be around for a while.
  
  
• HARRY'S LAW
  This one is the real head-scratcher. Based on key demo ratings, this show would almost be at home on the CW, garnering worse numbers than The Vampire Diaries (although it does do okay in total numbers). NBC just ordered 6 more scripts, but I think it was a bad call. I have a feeling NBC sees this as their The Good Wife, hoping it'll bring some reputability to the network. Sorry NBC, it will not.
  
  
• UNFORGETTABLE
  CBS loves its crime procedurals, but viewers aren't exactly flocking to this piece of shit, and they know it. It's numbers have been going steadily down and even if it stays where it is, it's going to have a hard time. It may get a full season, but I'd be shocked if it got a second year. I guess watching Poppy Montgomery stare off into space just isn't as riveting as CBS hoped it would be... Note to Poppy, save the money you spend on lip injections and spend it on a dialect coach.
  
  
• PERSON OF INTEREST
  Its future looks rosier than Unforgettable's, but only by a bit. The numbers are okay for now, but they've been going steadily down. It's an expensive show to produce, but it has an impressive pedigree. If it can stay were it is, I think it'll be fine. If it goes much lower, it'll be in trouble. I think it's going to come down to one or the other and this will get picked up and Unforgettable will get the axe.
  
  

**DEAD ZONE**
(SHOWS THAT SHOULD PROBABLY REVIEW THEIR WILLS):

• CHARLIE'S ANGELS
  Not long for this world, peeps. I'm guessing it'll be the next to get cancelled. Terrible show, terrible ratings. I'm kind of surprised it hasn't already bitten the big one.
  
  
• A GIFTED MAN
  Even with a Friday timeslot, there's no saving this one. CBS will likely give it the axe the moment it has something to fill the timeslot with, if not sooner.
  
  
• FRINGE
  Again, Friday can only forgive so much. Fox seems to be behind this one though, so I guess a miracle could happen. In my heart of hearts, I suspect this will be its last season, but I'm guessing it'll be a full season.
  
  

**EXTREMELY DEAD ZONE**
(SHOWS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN CANCELED):

• THE PLAYBOY CLUB
  This one never stood a chance, and it has nothing to do with the PTC. If anything, the right wing uproar is the only thing that brought in any ratings at all. This show just couldn't work on network TV. The leads were lackluster for the most part and the writing was sloppy.
  
  
• FREE AGENTS
  Even though the ratings sucked, I thought this one would last a little longer by simple virtue of being a half-hour comedy... I was wrong. Go forth, Giles, onto better gigs.
  
  
• HOW TO BE A GENTLEMAN
  Hats off to CBS for pulling the plug on this piece of shit after only one episode. On any other network, the ratings would have been cause for celebration, but CBS has a higher threshold and the luxury of axing anything it chooses.
  
  
• H8R
  I never saw a single episode... and neither did anyone else. You get canceled by the CW, you know you've got problems. The CW doesn't do a whole lot right, but getting rid of this horrendous assault on television was one of the best moves in recent history.
  

NBC aka The Biggest Loser

Now that the fall slaughter is basically complete, it's time to run down the networks and see how everyone fared. Oh, NBC... Seems they just didn't get rid of Zucker in time to save this fall development schedule. At this point, I'm honestly not sure how they're going to recover. They spent an obscene amount of money trying to revitalize the network with an unheard of number of high-profile, expensive new shows and what do they have to show for it? Chuck is one of their highest-rated scripted shows. Quite frankly, when titling this post, I had a hard time deciding between NBC shows The Biggest Loser or ER in terms of aptonyms. I thought about Lost, but that's another network that's currently in trouble.

Here's how the chips fell for the peacock this fall... (We'll start with the bad news--brace yourselves, there's a lot of it.) It's hard to know just where to begin when even the "successes" are failures, but here we go. Worst of the worst.

(When talking about TV success and failure, you're usually talking ratings. For a primer on TV ratings, go here. It'll probably make most of the ratings talk later on make a lot more sense.)

THE CANCELEDS

Outlaw
While it wasn't the very first fall show to get the axe, that has more to do with NBC's ever-lowering standards than with the ratings themselves. Even for a Friday show, the ratings were abyssal. At last glance, they were getting their asses handed to them by the CW in terms of key demo ratings. On any other network, Outlaw would have been toast even sooner than it was. Deservedly so, as luck would have it. This was a truly terrible show that should never have seen the light of day. This sucker was about dead right out of the gate with debut numbers that were embarrassing by nearly any standards. Jimmie, you made for the worst season of Dexter ever, and for that, I'm glad to see your career taking a hit. Let this be a word of warning to other shows... don't cast him! Boy, I don't remember hating him before Dexter, but seriously, if I never hear the name Miguel Prado again, it'll be too soon. Smits is forever tainted... as is the third season of Dexter, thank you very much.

Undercovers
Although this show was only recently given the passive-aggressive axe (rather than being flat out canceled, they simply opted to not pick up anymore episodes), I think it's probably the most devastating, most expensive blunder NBC has endured this year. Good lord, when a flashy, high-budget JJ Abrams production can't survive on your network, what can? Once again, however, this show was quite deservedly canceled. Its debut numbers were lower than expected and just kept falling from there. At last count, it scored a 1.3 in the key demo. For comparison's sake, that's only slightly better than Nikita's numbers. The Vampire Diaries most recently scored a 1.6. When you're getting trounced by the CW, you're in trouble, even if it's abundantly clear that their shows are awesome. Serious trouble. Fans of Undercovers might cry foul that that's an unfair comparison because the CW slate airs on a different night than Undercovers does. Yeah, they air on a much more competitive night. And they're still holding their own. NBC promoted the hell out of Undercovers, and scheduled it in one of the least daunting timeslots on the air. At the end of the day, it's just a terrible show. It's a shame to lose on of the few shows around to be helmed by faces of color, but as one commenter noted on a gossip blog, poor quality transcends race (or something like that). At the root of the problem for me was the lack of gravity. I realize the writers were aiming for a lighter farce, but they shot themselves in the foot. Hell, Psych has more suspense and more at stake and it's even more of a farce. Undercovers was just plain dull. when there's nothing to lose, there's little to gain. The espionage was about as suspenseful as the lame-ass catering B-plots. This show won't be missed by viewers, but I think NBC is about ready to cry. This was their ace in the hole going into this fall and it has proven to be one of their costliest misfires. Ouch.

THE SHOULD-HAVE-BEEN CANCELEDS

Chase
I still can't believe that they picked this show up for a full-season. I really think they simply didn't have anything with which to fill the gap, so they had to keep it. At last count, they were averaging a 1.5 in the key demo when they received the back nine order. For yet another comparison, Fox's Lone Star was unhesitatingly canceled after two weeks of scoring a 1.3--which is the same kind of numbers that led to Undercovers being canceled. 1.3 and 1.5 aren't that far apart, even in terms of TV ratings. Why did Chase get a pass? Well, it's a tough call. Aside from having little else to fall back on, Chase airs in one of the most competitive timeslots on the air. Based on the steep competition (I can't say I'd be happy to be pitted against Castle and Hawaii Five-0 if I were a show), a 1.5 might not be looking so bad to the suits at NBC. The most recent 1.2 that the show posted last night, probably looks pretty grim. Ouch. It managed to eek out of a full season order, but it won't be picked up for a second season. Quite frankly, if this trend continues, it'll likely get yanked before the year it out. It certainly won't survive the winter break. Good god, this is the first time since I started watching the ratings that the CW actually looks almost competitive! When compared to NBC, they really aren't that far behind. Sad. Fortunately, Chase is yet another horrible show, so it deserves the axe, but for NBC's sake, this is yet another colossal failure, and it's a purported success. Ha!

The Event
Yet another show that got a full-season pick-up, and yet another show whose ratings really don't warrant such a distinction. It's the best show of NBC's fall slate, however, so I'm glad they're giving it the old college try. Its ratings started out stronger than expected, but it's been hemorrhaging viewers ever since. I myself am one of those viewers. Well, sort of. Technically, it's been piling up in my DVR for over a month... I'm going to give it one more shot, but assume I'll bite the bullet and cancel it. It's really a pretty good show (as I recall from 5 weeks ago), but I just couldn't seem to get into it initially. Anyway, it managed the back nine, but with a 1.7 key demo rating last night, the slide continues into some seriously troubled waters. Of all the new shows on the network, I think this one will have the hardest time recovering from the winter break. As with FlashForward before it, I predict it will limp its way through sweeps, go on hiatus, and basically never really come back. I can't imagine this show will get a second season, so I'm honestly not all that motivated to give it another shot. The only way this show will be back next year is if NBC doesn't have any other options or simply can't afford to promote anything new. As one of the only new shows to even kind of step out of the box this year, it's a shame, but I can't say I'm surprised.

THE UNBELIEVABLY-LOW-BAR SUCCESSES

Chuck
Okay, this cracks me up every single time. This show has been struggling since day one, has almost been canceled three years in a row, and is now one of NBC's highest-rated and most consistent scripted programs. Ha! The really funny part is that the ratings aren't any better than they've ever been. In fact, they're worse. But with a steady 1.9-2.0 in the key demo, it's one of NBC's top shows these days. I honestly haven't been all that impressed by the current season (what can I say? I'm bored. Where's Bryce Larkin when you need him? Oh wait, that would be on White Collar), but it seems to be turning a corner (it always seems to take a few episodes to really get in gear). I'm happy for the little-show-that-could and do hope that they're all laughing their asses off at the NBC brass. Unless NBC someone finds a whole lotta cash (at this point, I'm thinking alchemy is their best bet), I don't know how they're going to put together a slate this fall that might result in Chuck getting the axe, so count on Chuck sticking around for the foreseeable future. With the new president though, I'm hopeful for NBC's creative direction in the coming year. It can't possibly get worse, right?

Law & Order: Los Angeles
Hi, broken record here. This show is averaging a 1.9 in the key demo, but for NBC, that makes it one of their pinch hitters. Man, that's bleak. I've never watched the show, but I hear it's pretty awful. I've heard that Law & Order : UK is actually quite good, however, so I'd suggest tuning into BBCA if you're really in the mood for this particular franchise.

Outsourced
Ugh. I tried to watch the pilot, I really, really did, but just couldn't do it. 7 minutes was all I could take. I hear it's actually gotten considerably better since then, but I'm in no mood to give it another go. I was pretty disheartened and embarrassed to hear that it received a full season order, but given that it's a half-hour comedy with decent ratings, I'm not surprised. It most recently scored a 2.7 in the key demo, which at first blush looks fantastic for NBC, but trust me, it's really not that impressive. When you take into account that its lead-in The Office scored a 3.7, that's a serious drop off, and leaves it in fourth for the time period. Not good. But, it's an inexpensive show that's easy to produce and that has to be paired with something else, so I'd be surprised if it doesn't get a second season. While its ratings should be better, they're pretty damn good by NBC standards, and have actually been fairly consistent, so assuming it stays above a 1.5, it should be a shoe-in for another year. How sad is that? Double ugh. Of all the shows to make my safe list, did this really have to be one of them? Really? Thanks for nothing, NBC. Once again.

Parenthood
It's honestly a bit difficult to decide exactly which category this one should be in. While it's been enduring a slow but steady slide in the ratings, and more than a few rumors that it's getting the axe, it still averages in NBC's safe zone, so I don't think viewers have much to worry about. It's generally in the 2.0 key demo range, which for NBC, is quite solid. Unfortunately, the show itself isn't. It has never been a favorite of mine, but it seems to be more grating than ever. The contrived drama and constant bickering is unbearable most of the time. I hang in there for Lauren Graham and Peter Krause, but it's getting tougher and tougher--especially when you take into the sheer brilliance of its main timeslot competitor, The Good Wife. Honestly, if it's one or the other for you, the decision is easy. I recently just started watching Sports Night on DVD, so my love between Peter Krause and Josh Charles should be evenly split, but overall, The Good Wife is simply superior in every possible way so even Sports Night can't level the field. As happy as I am that Lauren Graham has a steady gig (and that she and Peter Krause are reportedly dating--aww, well idn't that nice!), I wouldn't be heartbroken to see Parenthood get the axe at the end of this season. It has its moments, but it's mostly just shrill bickering. I'm sorry, but if this show is an accurate representation of family life for most people, I can't understand why anyone gets married, has children, or even speaks to other people. When there's nothing but conflict, it's unsatisfying. Who cares if one irrational fight gets resolved because you know there's another one right around the corner. Ugh. It's ratings have been in a downward trend, so it'll certainly be on the bubble come May, but if it can maintain a 2.0, it should be okay. The only other factor that might make that 2.0 not look so rosy is the cost of the show. It has a huge cast of names attached to it and it can't be cheap to produce. NBC doesn't exactly have money to burn these days, so if it comes down to Parenthood or a cheaper show with slightly worse ratings, it could easily be a toss up.

So there you have it. I didn't get into the nitty gritty of some NBC's returning shows, but odds are you're already aware of how they're performing. The Office and 30 Rock are tops, The Apprentice is a ratings disaster, The Biggest Loser keeps eating up more primetime (about 40 minutes of scales bonging a week, I'd say) and my darling Community continues to struggle a bit in a painfully tough timeslot. Creatively, it's better than ever, and NBC has even upped its season order to 24 episodes. Yay! Odds are it'll be fine come May, but I'll cross that bridge when I get to it. And then there's The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. What an unmitigated disaster. For the first time ever, I believe, The Daily Show beat Leno (and Letterman for that matter) in the key demo the other day. Ha! A little Comedy Central fake news show is beating The Tonight Show. That has to be pretty gut-wrenching for the brass at NBC.

Speaking of the brass, as mentioned, NBC has finally, finally, FINALLY gotten rid of Jeff Zucker. I'm honestly not too familiar with his replacement, but I'm pretty sure a pet rock could do a better job, so it doesn't really matter who takes over. At least it's not Zucker. He managed to take the number one network on TV and turn it into a close competitor for the CW. Way to go, dumbass. You won't be missed.

It's hard to know really where NBC will go from here. They need to rebuild their schedule for real this time, get a few solid scripted programs on the air, and then build from there. One of the biggest problems with the fall pilots this year is that NBC doesn't have any heavy hitters to act as lead-ins for new shows. If they can manage to develop even a couple of solid performers, they can use that as a foundation to promote other new shows. Until then, they're going to struggle... more so.

On Ratings...

As you all know, I spend a lot of my time focused on TV shows, spoilers, pick-ups and cancellations, and, of import today, ratings.

I try not to operate on the assumption that everyone is as pathetically well-versed in industry speak and the nuances of network practices as I am, but occasionally I fumble. As with anything that someone is really passionate about or that he/she spends enough time on, the things that are obvious to someone who's constantly embroiled in that subject are completely arcane and unknown to others. So let it be with television.

I recently received a comment from someone named Baye who pointed this out to me (that wasn't actually was the intention, but that was the result).

Baye called me out for some perceived ageism that I included in my diatribe about The Mentalist's success last spring (the full post can be found here). This the section Baye took issue with:

In short, the show annoys the hell out of me and I spend the better part of every episode alternately yelling at the TV and weeping for the future of a culture that would love this show so entirely. I'm going to assume that the only people out there with Nielsen boxes (which is a ridiculous, inaccurate, archaic system that doesn't even kind of work--but that's a rant for another day) are old people who don't know how to watch TV online or off their DVR. Seriously, only people over the age of 50 consistently watch TV when it's actually on. As such, shows that appeal to old people (well, not only old people, but they skew older, that's for sure) like Dancing with the Stars, NCIS, and the steaming crap pile that is The Mentalist garner such huge ratings numbers.

Here's what Baye said in response:

Oh! Some serious age bashing going on here. Damn! I was enjoying your blog. Let me assure that I and many of my older cohorts are not only capable of handling whatever technology dishes up, we are participating in developing it. I got my master's in instructional design and educational technology in my fifties with a perfect 4.0 leaving the vast majority of the much younger students in the dust.

The older generation is not responsible for the programing. As anyone in advertising will tell you, advertisers support programing that appeals to younger people. If a show stays on, it is because younger people are watching. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that doesn't apply to blogs, though.

First off, I totally cop to some ageism. But, I honestly didn't mean it as an absolute assessment of the entire over 50 community. I know more than a few people in their 50s, 60s, and even 70s who know their way around technology way better than I do. But, I have to admit, my perspective is a bit colored by my and my peers' parents. My mother, for example, still hates answering calls on her cell phone. She's gotten considerably better, but for the longest time, when someone would call, she would push "Ignore" or "Cancel". Again and again. I don't know why she thought that would answer the call, but as the person on the other end of the phone trying desperately to get a hold of her, I can assure you, it does not. Anyway, again, not a blanket absolute here, but that's really beside the point.

What really jumped out at me from Baye's comments was the fact that I have a tendency to assume that people know exactly what I'm trying to say even when I'm not even in the same hemisphere as clarity.

The point I was really trying to make about The Mentalist is that it skews older than a lot of other shows in terms of viewers. The show puts up huge numbers in total viewers, but when it comes to the "Key Demo," they don't perform anywhere near as well. The "Key Demo" is ages 18-49. That's why I chose the number 50 when speaking to the age range of viewers for The Mentalist. The key demo (I'm sick of capitalizing and quotation marking, so I ain't gonna) is more important than the overall total number of viewers because advertisers seem to think that before you're 18 and once you hit 50, you don't buy anything anymore. I've never thought using the key demo numbers was all that great an of an idea, but whatever. This means that a show can get pretty paltry total numbers, but if they tend to skew younger, they're considered a success, whereas a show that posts huge total viewers, but skews older, might be seen as struggling. The total number of viewers is important though (even if it's secondary to key demos), and can absolutely affect the fate of a show with less-than-phenomenal key demo numbers. I assume that is the case with The Mentalist. Now, don't get me wrong, The Mentalist's key demo numbers aren't terrible, but compared to their overall viewership, it's clear that the show largely appeals to the over 50 demographic. For example, the ratings for its most recent episode (which aired on 4/22) were thus: It scored a huge 14.78 million total viewers, but only scored a 3.0 in the key demo--not bad, but no where near as spectaculars as the overall total. Ergo, the show skews older, and I hate the show, so I chose to blame the older set (because I have the emotional maturity of a cupcake and always need someone to blame, whether they deserve it or not). Again, a 3.0 is decent and all, especially given that CBS tends to skew older in general, but advertisers would like to see that key demo number higher. By contrast, a show like The Office, which tends to appeal to younger viewers, most recently posted only 7 million total viewers, but scored a 3.6 in the key demo. Another show which skews younger is Glee, which routinely scores above a 5.0 in the key demo--an insanely high number for a scripted program. Glee generally has lower overall viewers than its timeslot competitor NCIS: Los Angeles, but never ever loses in terms of demo numbers. Most recently, NCIS:LA posted more than 3 million more total viewers, but only scored a 3.2 in the demo, compared to Glee's 5.3.

Even though the key demo is the most important number, the number of total viewers is the primary reason shows like The Mentalist and The Good Wife are considered successful. As such, the total number of viewers are a big part of why the crap pile that is The Mentalist is such a force, and such, the reason that those who fall outside the key demo incurred some wrath (not that you key demoers out there are helping the situation--I gave up on the show ages ago and encourage you to follow suit).

This ratings breakdown sometimes helps the shows I watch and it sometimes hurts. The Good Wife tends to skew older and is getting some heat for it. The Good Wife averages a healthy 13 million total viewers each week, but only rates in the 2.3-2.6 range for key demo (even lower than that lately). It's a real shame, because shows can get cancelled for numbers a bit lower than that and The Good Wife is one of my favorites. On the other hand, my CW darlings definitely benefit from key demo ratings. The Vampire Diaries only had 3.4 million total viewers, but scored a 1.6 in the key demo (which for the CW, is awesome). So yeah, The Vampire Diaries has about 1/5 the total viewership of The Mentalist, but manages over 1/2 the demo rating.

From a technology standpoint, shows that skew younger also benefit from considerably higher DVR viewings and online support. Much more so than shows that skew older. That's why I made the leap that, in general, shows that skew older have higher total viewers because older viewers are more likely to watch a show live. For instance, shows like Gossip Girl and The Vampire Diaries have relatively very low live ratings, but the shows benefit hugely from DVR and online viewings. Those numbers aren't as important as live viewing and key demos or anything, but they still matter. Shows like The Mentalist don't benefit much at all from other viewing methods because most viewers watch the show live.

Anyway, I realize that most of you totally don't care about any of that, but in case you're wondering how I come up with my theories on which shows will survive and which will get canceled, this is a big part of it. I don't keep up with the ratings of shows I don't watch all that often, but I always check to see how new shows are doing and how my current slate of programming fares week to week. On a related note, say goodbye to Happy Town and Miami Medical. There's no way in hell they'll be joining us next season (barring a Dollhouse-sized miracle for the 9 people who actually watched either of those crappy beyond crappy shows).

Long story short, Baye, if you're out there, I hope my Mentalist-induced ageism didn't drive you off for good. I love, love, love the fact that millions of people 0ver 50 are tuning into The Good Wife live, because it's a fantastic show, and they're a big part of why it's still on the air. My ire over the fact that the over 50 set is watching The Mentalist in throngs says more about The Mentalist being a terrible show than anything else. Good god, I tried to watch a bit of it the other day and just couldn't get through 5 minutes without wanting to throw something at the TV.

Mea Culpa activated!