On Ratings...

As you all know, I spend a lot of my time focused on TV shows, spoilers, pick-ups and cancellations, and, of import today, ratings.

I try not to operate on the assumption that everyone is as pathetically well-versed in industry speak and the nuances of network practices as I am, but occasionally I fumble. As with anything that someone is really passionate about or that he/she spends enough time on, the things that are obvious to someone who's constantly embroiled in that subject are completely arcane and unknown to others. So let it be with television.

I recently received a comment from someone named Baye who pointed this out to me (that wasn't actually was the intention, but that was the result).

Baye called me out for some perceived ageism that I included in my diatribe about The Mentalist's success last spring (the full post can be found here). This the section Baye took issue with:

In short, the show annoys the hell out of me and I spend the better part of every episode alternately yelling at the TV and weeping for the future of a culture that would love this show so entirely. I'm going to assume that the only people out there with Nielsen boxes (which is a ridiculous, inaccurate, archaic system that doesn't even kind of work--but that's a rant for another day) are old people who don't know how to watch TV online or off their DVR. Seriously, only people over the age of 50 consistently watch TV when it's actually on. As such, shows that appeal to old people (well, not only old people, but they skew older, that's for sure) like Dancing with the Stars, NCIS, and the steaming crap pile that is The Mentalist garner such huge ratings numbers.

Here's what Baye said in response:

Oh! Some serious age bashing going on here. Damn! I was enjoying your blog. Let me assure that I and many of my older cohorts are not only capable of handling whatever technology dishes up, we are participating in developing it. I got my master's in instructional design and educational technology in my fifties with a perfect 4.0 leaving the vast majority of the much younger students in the dust.

The older generation is not responsible for the programing. As anyone in advertising will tell you, advertisers support programing that appeals to younger people. If a show stays on, it is because younger people are watching. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that doesn't apply to blogs, though.

First off, I totally cop to some ageism. But, I honestly didn't mean it as an absolute assessment of the entire over 50 community. I know more than a few people in their 50s, 60s, and even 70s who know their way around technology way better than I do. But, I have to admit, my perspective is a bit colored by my and my peers' parents. My mother, for example, still hates answering calls on her cell phone. She's gotten considerably better, but for the longest time, when someone would call, she would push "Ignore" or "Cancel". Again and again. I don't know why she thought that would answer the call, but as the person on the other end of the phone trying desperately to get a hold of her, I can assure you, it does not. Anyway, again, not a blanket absolute here, but that's really beside the point.

What really jumped out at me from Baye's comments was the fact that I have a tendency to assume that people know exactly what I'm trying to say even when I'm not even in the same hemisphere as clarity.

The point I was really trying to make about The Mentalist is that it skews older than a lot of other shows in terms of viewers. The show puts up huge numbers in total viewers, but when it comes to the "Key Demo," they don't perform anywhere near as well. The "Key Demo" is ages 18-49. That's why I chose the number 50 when speaking to the age range of viewers for The Mentalist. The key demo (I'm sick of capitalizing and quotation marking, so I ain't gonna) is more important than the overall total number of viewers because advertisers seem to think that before you're 18 and once you hit 50, you don't buy anything anymore. I've never thought using the key demo numbers was all that great an of an idea, but whatever. This means that a show can get pretty paltry total numbers, but if they tend to skew younger, they're considered a success, whereas a show that posts huge total viewers, but skews older, might be seen as struggling. The total number of viewers is important though (even if it's secondary to key demos), and can absolutely affect the fate of a show with less-than-phenomenal key demo numbers. I assume that is the case with The Mentalist. Now, don't get me wrong, The Mentalist's key demo numbers aren't terrible, but compared to their overall viewership, it's clear that the show largely appeals to the over 50 demographic. For example, the ratings for its most recent episode (which aired on 4/22) were thus: It scored a huge 14.78 million total viewers, but only scored a 3.0 in the key demo--not bad, but no where near as spectaculars as the overall total. Ergo, the show skews older, and I hate the show, so I chose to blame the older set (because I have the emotional maturity of a cupcake and always need someone to blame, whether they deserve it or not). Again, a 3.0 is decent and all, especially given that CBS tends to skew older in general, but advertisers would like to see that key demo number higher. By contrast, a show like The Office, which tends to appeal to younger viewers, most recently posted only 7 million total viewers, but scored a 3.6 in the key demo. Another show which skews younger is Glee, which routinely scores above a 5.0 in the key demo--an insanely high number for a scripted program. Glee generally has lower overall viewers than its timeslot competitor NCIS: Los Angeles, but never ever loses in terms of demo numbers. Most recently, NCIS:LA posted more than 3 million more total viewers, but only scored a 3.2 in the demo, compared to Glee's 5.3.

Even though the key demo is the most important number, the number of total viewers is the primary reason shows like The Mentalist and The Good Wife are considered successful. As such, the total number of viewers are a big part of why the crap pile that is The Mentalist is such a force, and such, the reason that those who fall outside the key demo incurred some wrath (not that you key demoers out there are helping the situation--I gave up on the show ages ago and encourage you to follow suit).

This ratings breakdown sometimes helps the shows I watch and it sometimes hurts. The Good Wife tends to skew older and is getting some heat for it. The Good Wife averages a healthy 13 million total viewers each week, but only rates in the 2.3-2.6 range for key demo (even lower than that lately). It's a real shame, because shows can get cancelled for numbers a bit lower than that and The Good Wife is one of my favorites. On the other hand, my CW darlings definitely benefit from key demo ratings. The Vampire Diaries only had 3.4 million total viewers, but scored a 1.6 in the key demo (which for the CW, is awesome). So yeah, The Vampire Diaries has about 1/5 the total viewership of The Mentalist, but manages over 1/2 the demo rating.

From a technology standpoint, shows that skew younger also benefit from considerably higher DVR viewings and online support. Much more so than shows that skew older. That's why I made the leap that, in general, shows that skew older have higher total viewers because older viewers are more likely to watch a show live. For instance, shows like Gossip Girl and The Vampire Diaries have relatively very low live ratings, but the shows benefit hugely from DVR and online viewings. Those numbers aren't as important as live viewing and key demos or anything, but they still matter. Shows like The Mentalist don't benefit much at all from other viewing methods because most viewers watch the show live.

Anyway, I realize that most of you totally don't care about any of that, but in case you're wondering how I come up with my theories on which shows will survive and which will get canceled, this is a big part of it. I don't keep up with the ratings of shows I don't watch all that often, but I always check to see how new shows are doing and how my current slate of programming fares week to week. On a related note, say goodbye to Happy Town and Miami Medical. There's no way in hell they'll be joining us next season (barring a Dollhouse-sized miracle for the 9 people who actually watched either of those crappy beyond crappy shows).

Long story short, Baye, if you're out there, I hope my Mentalist-induced ageism didn't drive you off for good. I love, love, love the fact that millions of people 0ver 50 are tuning into The Good Wife live, because it's a fantastic show, and they're a big part of why it's still on the air. My ire over the fact that the over 50 set is watching The Mentalist in throngs says more about The Mentalist being a terrible show than anything else. Good god, I tried to watch a bit of it the other day and just couldn't get through 5 minutes without wanting to throw something at the TV.

Mea Culpa activated!