The Countdown to Slaughterama

Although networks won't officially unveil their fall line-ups for next year until May, shows are already being picked up and axed. This early in the season, networks generally do a lot more picking up than axing, but based on ratings, public interest, and buzz, it's pretty easy to tell where some shows are headed. Here's how things are shaping up so far:

SHOWS THAT HAVE BEEN OFFICIALLY PICKED UP FOR ANOTHER SEASON:

• Sons of Anarchy
• Dark Blue (It's not a great show, but its first season was pretty decent. I think it has potential to grow, so in spite of lackluster ratings, I'm glad to see TNT is giving this one another chance. It's a testament to just how little TNT has going for it that this got picked up. TNT wishes it were USA, but it just isn't. Too bad, so sad.)
• The Doctors
• Stargate: Universe (Bob, this one's for you.)
• Sanctuary (Oh wait, so is this one. People will think it's your birthday!)
• White Collar (This show started off a little rough for me, but it has gotten oh-so-much better. The writers seemed to have nailed down what exactly it is they're trying to do and it's all working much better. It's taking a beating from Lost at the moment, but it's generally a solid performer for USA. It got an early renewal after only a few episodes, so I think it's safe to say the network is fully behind it. Oh, and another season of watching Matt Bomer do just about anything? Yes, please.)
• Cougar Town (Which received an early second season pick-up AND an additional 2 episodes for the current season.)
• Modern Family (Yay!)
• The Middle (Gag!)
• Glee (Back to yay!)
• Secret Life of the American Teenager (I really wish ABC Family would just stop trying. My only experience with this piece of teen angsty shit is via The Soup, and believe me, I enjoy unintentionally funny as much as the next person, but this show is just beyond painful. Why are you watching this show, humanity? Why?)
• Make It Or Break It (See previous comments, add gymnasts, er... "gymnasts")
• NCIS: Los Angeles (Yet another show that no one should be watching, only violenter.)
• The Good Wife (A show I'm actually exited about! What a nice change of pace. This show started off strong and has only gotten stronger. I'm really loving this show. The legal A-plots are well-done and entertaining and most importantly, seem to have working knowledge of the law, which is nice--unlike ABC's abysmal The Deep End, which will soon be cancelled.)
• Men of a Certain Age (Yet another example of how desperate TNT is... this show's ratings are not good, but when you've got nothing else, apparently Ray Romano is the last resort.)
• Robot Chicken
• Survivor
• The Amazing Race
• How I Met Your Mother (This season hasn't been all that spectacular, but it's still a solid contender and I'm thrilled it'll be back. I like to think this show received a "suit-up" rather than a "pick-up" simply because it makes me smile.)
• Teen Mom
• Parks and Recreation (I don't watch the show, but I'm thrilled by the pick-up. Why you ask? That would be because its ratings are lower than Community's ratings, so the fact that Parks and Rec was picked up means Community almost certainly will as well. Stranger things have happened (especially on NBC), but for people with a reasonable grasp of reality, this is a very good sign)
• Cake Boss
• Big Love

SHOWS THAT HAVE BEEN OFFICIALLY AXED:

• The Bonnie Hunt Show (Surely there's someone out there who's mourning this loss... No? Okeedokee, moving on...)
• As the World Turns (After 112 years, this one is finally being laid to rest.)
• The Tyra Show (It's about damn time! I don't know what The Soup is going to do without this trainwreck to rely on... Oh wait, Jersey Shore will be back next year. Phew, that was close.)
• Rita Rocks (I'm, uh... heartbroken...)
• Head Case
• Ugly Betty (This one is officially coming to an end after this season (which has been shortened by 2 episodes). I'm hearing Happy Town will premiere in its place after the final in April. I've also heard that it will get an actual ending, so if there are any fans out there (and according to the show's ratings, I mean both of you), it will end its run in proper fashion (no pun intended)).

From here on out, this is all speculation. I keep track of ratings, trends, and network tendencies to an embarrassing degree, so the following assertions are educated, but by no means finite or legally binding. Some I hope I'm wrong, others I hope to hell I'm right. Please do not base your upcoming life decisions on my recommendations (even if I certainly will be). And as always, I don't include the obvious pick-ups like House, The Big Bang Theory, Grey's Anatomy, NCIS, or American Idol.

SHOWS THAT WILL GET PICKED UP:

• Castle (Much to my delight, I think Castle is a lock for next season. The network brass had more than a few good things to say about the show and its performance at the recent TCA conference and are especially pleased with how it performs in repeats (far better than most). Add to that the vote of confidence given with the request for two additional season 2 episodes and the fact that it will get a shot after Desperate Housewives for a week (the powers that be want to give it a shot after a scripted drama rather than reality crap for once--a very good sign) and I think it's safe to say the show will be back again next year. On top of all that, its ratings have been rising week-to-week and it's only a matter of time before it gets an official pick-up. Yay! It's so nice to see Cap'n Hammer on a show that isn't being cancelled. For once.)
• Community (As I already mentioned earlier, Parks and Rec received a pick-up and its ratings are lower than Community's (even though Community airs in a much more competitive timeslot). Add to that the fact that NBC is scrambling for programming thanks to its self-imposed late night debacle and the network really doesn't have a whole lot of other options. They have requested 3 additional scripts for the show (to help fill the void) and I think it's in very good position for a second season. Half-hour comedies generally have to go in pairs and they're cheap to produce, so I don't see any reason they'd drop it. Although, knowing NBC, anything can happen. Blah.)
• Chuck (I was going to put Chuck in the bubble category, but I'm going out of a limb and saying it'll get picked up. As mentioned, NBC is kind of scrambling these days and they need all the programming they can get. The show has been holding pretty steady at pretty decent (though not spectacular) ratings and I think the network knows the show has the public behind it all the way. This season has been awesome thus far and shows a lot of promise for the future. Most importantly, in spite of a much tougher timeslot, Chuck is doing considerably better than Heroes in the ratings department. NBC doesn't have a leg to stand on regarding Heroes these days (it's key demo ratings are abysmal ), so if they don't cancel it, all bets are off. Even hard core fans have been calling for its end, so I can't imagine even NBC could be that obtuse. Most importantly, this is good news for Chuck, so burn, Heroes, burn! More on that later...)
• Accidentally on Purpose (I can't believe I'm putting this turkey in the pick-up section, but I think it's going to survive. A few months ago, I would have said there wasn't a chance, but its ratings have been improving and the network seems to like the pairing with How I Met Your Mother. I hope to hell I'm wrong on this one, but I think Jenna Elfman and her awful dog and pony show is going to make the cut.)
• Life Unexpected (For as underwhelmed as I was by this show, it's still one of the best shows on the CW (which ain't saying much). It's ratings are solid by CW standards and there's no threat of it being cancelled. Even if the ratings take a bit of a dive, it'll still be picked up.
• The Vampire Diaries (I'm almost certain this show has already gotten a second season pick-up, but if not, it certainly will. And should. This one started off a little cornball for me, but it has gotten pretty damn awesome. Ian Somerhalder is still far and away the best part of the show, but the rest of the players have grown on me. It's also gotten to the guilty pleasure point in its life and I'm alllll about that.)
• Gossip Girl (With sagging ratings and lackluster creative this season, some rumors have been floated that it might be in trouble. Rest assured, it'll be fine. I'm also hearing that the showrunners have recognized the problems and are hell bent on fixing them. Here's hoping.)

SHOWS THAT WILL NOT GET PICKED-UP:

• Scrubs (I don't know what ABC was thinking on this one, but it didn't work. There's no chance in hell this show will be back next year, even taking into account the 37 previous times we thought it was dead, but somehow survived.)
• Better Off Ted (This one's a real heart-breaker. If it had premiered at a different time on a different network (it fits in a lot better with NBC's slate of comedies than it does with ABC's), I think it would have had a chance, but as is, it won't survive the slaughter. It was a miracle it got a second season, let alone a third. Such a great show. It will be sorely missed.)
• The Forgotten (I'm actually pretty surprised this turkey hasn't been axed already. I know ABC has been trying to get into the crime procedural racket for a good long while, but believe me, ABC, this is not your golden ticket. The ratings are bad and the show itself is even worse. The aptly titled The Forgotten very soon will be.)
• The Deep End (The show is awful and the ratings are abysmal (heh, no pun intended, once again). The only reason this one is still on the air is that ABC doesn't have anything with which to replace it. If the ratings keep dropping though, I have a feeling it will be replaced by repeats of other shows in the very near future. Yikes. Fortunately, its death will free up a hell of a lot of great actors for other gigs. So, kill pussycat, kill.)
• Heroes (As I mentioned in the Chuck discussion, Heroes appears to finally finally finally be on its sad sorry way out the door. Its ratings are pathetic and have been slowly sinking for months. Even in light of meager gains, they're still well below just about any other show on TV (in terms of key demos). That it survived this long is astonishing. It's way too expensive to have such low ratings and still survive. So please, NBC, just let it die. Let those poor actors out of this mess and give them a sporting chance at salvaging a career. Most importantly, please put viewers who have DVRed Chuck out of their misery by no longer making us watch the first minute or so that was tacked onto the end of the recording... it's just too painful.)
• Trauma (In spite of the fact that NBC has ordered 4 additional episodes, I can't imagine it will get a pick-up for next year (unless something magical happens to the ratings). The only reason they ordered more episodes is to fill the holes in the next few months. It's a very expensive show to produce and has been pseudo-cancelled like a dozen times already. Clearly the network isn't behind this one and I can't see it coming back next year (even if it is one of the more decent shows on the network these days).)
• Human Target (This show has been difficult to track, given the number of timeslots it's been in and on how many different days it has aired, but I don't think it's long for this world. It was given an American Idol lead-in which garnered numbers that for any other timeslot would have been great, but following Idol, were lackluster. It aired this week without an Idol lead-in and plunged 23 %. Fox doesn't have the most exemplary record for keeping shows around and this one seems to be fading pretty fast. Stranger things have happened (I'm still shocked that Dollhouse got a second season), but I'm going to call this one and say it won't be back. It's not a good show, so good riddance, I say.)

SHOWS THAT ARE ON THE BUBBLE (ONES THAT COULD GO EITHER WAY):

• V (V and FlashForward are kind of kindreds in bubbleness. Of the two, V has the better chance of survival, but I still don't think it's a lock. When push comes to shove, I think ABC will keep V and axe FlashForward, but at this point, anything could happen. I lost interest in V after only a couple of episodes, so its fate isn't very high on my list. It's another show that is on hiatus at the moment, so it's hard to make a definite call. We'll see how it fares when it comes back and then I can tell you for sure.)
• FlashForward (I can tell you one thing, the utter failure of The Deep End is good news for FlashForward. FF performed FAR better in the same timeslot, so at least there won't be that hurdle to get over. The show still has to worry though. Its ratings slowly slipped from a promising start to a fair performer. I'm hopeful it hangs in there, but in my heart of hearts, I don't think it will be back next year.
• Mercy (I almost put this god awful turkey in the "will be cancelled" section, but I have a gut feeling it might get a reprieve. Its ratings are pretty bad, but the bar is pretty low and I just get the feeling NBC might want to keep this one. I think the fate of Mercy depends on the success or failure of Parenthood which premieres in March. If it does well, that could take Mercy's spot, but I think the network might want to pair these two together... It could really go either way, as far as I'm concerned. I'm leaning toward cancellation (because god knows it deserves it), but I think NBC might be just stupid and desperate enough to keep it.
• Medium and The Ghost Whisperer (No one is really sure what's going on with these two, and for that matter Numbers (which was said to be finishing up, but might not be). These ones could really go either way. Without anything else to put on Fridays, I think CBS might keep them, but I honestly don't care.)
• Fringe (This is one of those shows that I really wish I had kept up with, but ultimately didn't. I've heard it's gotten pretty amazing, but I wasn't able to hang in there. Its ratings are decent, but up against steep competition, it just hasn't performed as well as Fox would like. When its competition is in repeats, the numbers definitely go up though, so it's a tough call on this one. I'm going to err on the side of a pick-up, but it could really go either way.)
• Lie to Me (This show is on hiatus till springtime, so it's hard to really assess its chances. It's a solid contender, if not the most impressive ratings-wise. I think it ultimately might come down to Lie to Me or Fringe in the end... This show has really grown on me, so here's hoping for a pick-up. If Human Target gets the axe (as it rightly should), I think Lie to Me has a fighting chance. Lie to Me's ratings are quite a bit stronger than Human Target's (in the same timeslots), so all things being equal, Lie to Me will make it.)
• Past Life (Now, calling a show dead in the water before it even premieres may seem like a pretty douchey thing to do (read: NBCesque), but in this case, its warranted. Fox has show more than a few times that they have no faith in this one and with good reason. What little I know of the show is absolutely awful. I'll still be giving the pilot a shot, of course, but that's assuming Fox ever gives it a finite premiere date. They initially planned on giving it a plum spot after Idol, but now it's been shuffled off to die on Friday. Not exactly brimming with confidence in this mess...)
• Melrose Place (Of all the CW's shows, I'd say this one has the most to worry about. Assuming long running shows like Smallville and One Tree Hill come back, Melrose could be in trouble. If any of their shows end, however, I think Melrose might be safe. All in all, the CW doesn't have a lot going for it, so it's probably safe. The moderate success of Life Unexpected, however, could be problematic for Melrose, whose ratings are low even for CW standards...)

So there you have it. Official results won't be posted till the middle of May, but so far, that's how things are stacking up. I'll let you know if I hear anything definitive about these shows, but it could be a while. I honestly don't have a whole lot of shows that I'm all that worried about this year. There are few I'm a little on edge over, but all in all, nothing to melt-down over. Yet.