What are Upfronts, you people with actual lives who don't live at home in their mother's basement and watch TV all day long may ask? That's the time of year when networks make their official announcements regarding what shows will be around next season and which shows will go to live on a farm in the country where they can chase rabbits and chickens... yeah...
Now, for shows that are either very successful or are The Beautiful Life, these decisions have already been made. The reasons behind giving a show an early renewal or an early death are many-fold, but in general, shows with good ratings have already been given a pick-up and The Beautiful Life is already dead as a dead dead (which, can I just say? Getting cancelled after only two episodes is pretty sad, but getting cancelled so soon by the CW is tantamount to getting punched in the face Snooki-style). Mainstays on each network don't generally get announced till later, but for shows like House, Grey's Anatomy, and NCIS, it's a foregone conclusion that they'll get picked up.
Anyway, I'm going to forgo any lengthy discussion of shows that will obviously be back and instead focus on the dreaded bubble. Each year, a number of shows are perched precariously on the bubble and aren't assured life or death until the actual Upfronts. It's cruel to showmakers and viewers alike, but I tend to think of it as my version of a fantasy football league (a league based on something that actually matters, unlike football).
Here are this year's bubble shows, so for those of you who don't keep up with ratings and have no idea how your favorite show may be performing, be forewarned--if your show is on this list, it's in trouble:
• Accidentally on Purpose (CBS)
• Better Off Ted (ABC)
• Chuck (NBC)
• FlashForward (ABC)
• The Forgotten (ABC)
• Ghost Whisperer (CBS)
• Heroes (NBC)
• Human Target (Fox)
• Lie to Me (Fox)
• Life Unexpected (The CW)
• Medium (CBS)
• Melrose Place (The CW)
• Mercy (NBC)
• Numb3rs (CBS)
• One Tree Hill (The CW)
• Parenthood (NBC)
• Scrubs (ABC)
• Southland (TNT)
• Trauma (NBC)
• V (ABC)
If you have a show on that list, there's cause for concern, but depending on which shows you have on the list, the concern level is very very different. There are a number of factors that affect a show's survival. Obviously, ratings are the reason they are on the bubble in the first place, but the final decision comes down to any number of factors including: what network a show airs on, fan support, quality of the show, production costs, network branding and strategy, what other shows are the network, what other shows are on the chopping block, how the network feels about the show, network reputation, contracts, etc., etc., etc.
I'm no expert, but I keep closer tabs on these things than most, so below, please find my official predictions for those poor unfortunate souls who are currently on the bubble. I have a pretty good track record, but even I get thrown for a loop on occasion. I was pretty surprised when Dollhouse escaped the dreaded axe, but for several of the reasons listed above, I could definitely understand the decision, even if others were mystified. The Fox network has been taking a beating from viewers for years for their careless handling of shows and their quickness to cancel any show that isn't an immediate hit. Firefly is the poster child for viewer malcontent and keeping Dollhouse around was little more than atoning for past sins as far as I'm concerned. And quite frankly, it worked pretty well. Fox has done many things over the past few years to improve their reputation and brand name and throwing a bone to the geeks has lifted much of their bad internet buzz. It may not have been the best financial decision right off the bat, but I think in the long run, it really helped stabilize viewers' perceptions of the network.
Anyway, I can't be 100% on these predictions, of course, but here's where I see things ending up:
SHOWS THAT WILL GET PICKED UP:
- CHUCK
As with the past couple of Upfront seasons before this, Chuck is one of the most bubbly of bubble shows. Sigh. This one is a tough call, given the instability of the show's modest ratings, but I'm going to err on the side of renewal. Why? Chuck is a great show with a strong, vocal fanbase and most importantly, it airs on NBC. Oh, NBC. You suck so very very much... Which is actually good news for Chuck at this particular moment. NBC has issues. It's brand name is in the toilet. It's slate of scripted programming is pathetic and talented writers and producers have actively begun to avoid the show. Add to that the Jay Leno debacle and NBC is looking at a pretty terrifying fall 2010. They have very few shows that can pull their weight and they'll have an extra 5 hours of television to fill. The only other scripted program on NBC to pull better numbers than Chuck really is Parenthood, which airs in a much less crowded timeslot. If Chuck can improve its numbers a bit or even just hold steady where it is, I think it'll be safe. On any other network (besides the CW), it would be in serious trouble, but NBC doesn't have the luxury to be choosy at this point. - PARENTHOOD
Speaking of Parenthood, I think it and Chuck will be the only two scripted, bubble shows on NBC to survive. Parenthood's numbers aren't great and were in a pretty steady decline until just recently (when it was up against practically not competition). More important than numbers, however, is the message this show sends. This show is NBC's vanguard of scripted programming and if they cancel it, it will be further evidence that NBC isn't a network that cares about talent or quality. Not that it's the best show in the world or anything (it's growing on me, but I still really only care about Lauren Graham and Peter Krause), but it is a family drama with an all-star cast. Cancelling this show would be disastrous for the already much maligned NBC brandname, so assuming it's numbers stay even half-way decent, I think it's safe to say Parenthood is in the clear. - LIFE UNEXPECTED
This one is one of the tougher calls on the list. I'm still on the fence about it, but I think it'll get picked up. Its numbers are on par with Gossip Girl, which has already been renewed. Also, there has been a surprising groundswell of support for the show, and the CW, like NBC, doesn't have any right to be choosy. A lot has been said about Life Unexpected and One Tree Hill and the presumed fact that only one will survive. Well, OTH's numbers are better (somehow... I think I sense a Stonecutter's plot), but it's an aging series and the CW knows it. I don't like LUX very much, and stopped watching it after only a few episodes, but I can tell you right now it's better than OTH. It's a very tough call though because the CW is a floundering network that has a pretty unfortunate bottom line... It's also the network that gave Veronica Mars three seasons though... but then gave it the axe... Yeah, tough call, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it'll get a stay of execution. - ONE TREE HILL
That's right, I'm going to buck the trend and say that LUX and OTH will get picked up. I honestly don't care about either show, but that's what I'm guessing is going to happen. It really depends on the CW's new slate of pilots though... - ACCIDENTALLY ON PURPOSE
I honestly don't have much to say about this steaming pile of crap other than that I think CBS will keep it. The numbers are modest at best, but it's a cheap show to produce and half-hour comedies generally have to be aired in pairs. It'll really depend on how CBS's pilot development goes, but at this point, I think it'll just squeak by. - V
Another tough call. It's only had one episode back from its hiatus, but the numbers were actually fairly decent (in that they were only down a little from its last fresh outing). The numbers aren't great though, so it could really go either way. If it comes down to FlashForward or V, and many of us in the industry think it will, V will get the pick-up. - LIE TO ME
This one is in a very odd situation... It's been on hiatus for some time now, but won't return until after the Upfronts, so there's very little to gauge its possibility of renewal on... That said, based on its old numbers, I think they'll give this one another chance. When stacked up against Human Target, Lie to Me is cheaper to produce and holds onto more of an audience. The fact that they will be starting it up again in June may sound like they're burning off episodes, but they have paired it with Matt Nix's new pet project The Good Guys (formerly called Code 58), so I think that's a vote of confidence. I think Fox may be trying to cash in on some of the summer profits that cable has been tapping into for years and I'm hoping Lie to Me is their strategy. Fox's schedule is always completely screwed up by reality shows, so it's hard to tell, but I'm going to predict that Lie to Me will be back early next year as a midseason starter (you know, after it wraps the rest of the current season this summer).
SHOWS THAT WILL GET THE AXE:
- THE FORGOTTEN
...has already been forgotten. There's no way in hell this turkey will get picked up, so if you love this show (and I can't imagine you really do, deep down inside), that's too bad. It was recently bumped for a clip show of FlashForward, so that's always a good sign... - FLASHFORWARD
Speaking of FF, it will also be cancelled. This show has paltry ratings, is expensive to produce, has flown off the rails creatively, is on its third set of showrunners, and its stars are already finding other work (which is technically in second position, but not really). I enjoyed this show early on, but it quickly turned into a chore to watch. It won't be back next year. Some blame the hiatus for the show's demise, and I'm sure that didn't help, but this was a sinking ship long before it was benched for 3 months. - SCRUBS
Should have died long ago, but now it's official. - BETTER OFF TED
Should have lived a long and prosperous life, but will not be back next year. I would love to say that ABC will keep it, but there's just no chance. I look at the second season as a miracle and a gift that won't be repeated. Unfortunately... God, I loved this show... - MELROSE PLACE
The CW doesn't have the right to be choosy, but even they won't be keeping this crap pile around for next year. It won't be missed... like so much Ashlee Simpson... - HEROES
This one is a tough call (unbelievably), but I think NBC will finally give this sucker the old heave-ho. Aside from being a truly terrible show that even hardcore fans wish would just die already, it has turned into a bit of an albatross for the network's image. It gets panned everywhere it goes and does nothing for the network's branding. It's an expensive show and its ratings are worse than Chuck's. I have heard that international sales are the only reason it was renewed last year, but I don't think even that will be enough to save it this time. Here's hoping I'm right and this nightmare will finally be over. Kill the show, save the network... - MERCY
...won't be joining us next year and no one really cares. Terrible show, even terribler ratings, it doesn't stand a chance. - TRAUMA
...won't be joining us either. NBC's stab at replacing ER backfired bigtime as neither of its new medical dramas took off. Trauma's not a bad show, but its ratings were pretty dismal to begin with and it's way too expensive to keep. Handled the right way, this could have been a real hit, but this is NBC we're talking about, so that was pretty much never a possibility. - NUMB3RS
This one is kind of odd, but I'm going to say it won't be back. There's a lot of backstory on this one's situation, but I don't really want to get into all of that. Suffice it to say, at one point everyone agreed this was its last season, then that kind of got muddled, but I think we ended up back at it getting the axe. - MEDIUM and THE GHOST WHISPERER
I'm not going to lie... I don't know anything about the numbers on either of these shows. Based on quality alone, I'm going to say cancelled, but really, I have no idea. If you love these shows, you'll have to look these up yourself... - HUMAN TARGET
Another tough one, but based on its most recent numbers and its lack of fan support, I'm going to say cancelled. It never held onto its American Idol lead-in like Fox would have wanted and it's ratings have always been pretty modest. Even people who kind of like the show don't really like the show, so I'm going to say it won't survive. And won't be missed. - SOUTHLAND
I wasn't a fan of this show early on, but it has totally grown on me. NBC gave it the axe even before it could air its second season, but I've found a new appreciation for the show on TNT. Unfortunately, that won't be enough to save it. The ratings are bad and no plans have been made to produce more episodes, so I don't think it has much of a chance. Too bad. It had really turned into a solid hour of programming. Although, is it sad that the opening credits are always my favorite part? What can I say? It's a really great title sequence...
And there you have it. There are really only a couple that I'm on the fence on and the others I'm quite confident. Time will tell, but at this point, that's how I see things stacking up. Depending on what happens with everyone's numbers over the next few weeks though, anything could happen...
1 comment:
Have I ever told you I love your posts? Well..I do. I'm a strong believer in following your TV show advice.
I've told Ben on several occasions that we can't watch certain shows because you said they were crap. I've never been disappointed!
Post a Comment