Friday, February 18, 2011

Countdown to Slaughterama 2011

Every year around this time, I usually put together a list of shows that have been officially picked up, shows that are officially cancelled, and shows which are "on the bubble" for renewal next year. I was compiling the list last week when it dawned on me that I don't actually care about the fates of 90% of network television, and another 8% have certain futures. The fact that there are only a small handful of shows that I'm concerned about led to a fair amount of apathy toward the whole process. As such, I'm punting a bit. Thankfully, in this day and age, there are more than a few experts out there weighing in on the fates of network programming, even though there are only a few shows that are actually worth caring about these days. Official pick-ups and cancellations will happen in May.

Here are two resources that are well-worth perusing if you are concerned about your shows and want some expert opinions (aside from mine) on whether or not they'll be back next year:
  • TVLine Renewal Scorecard
    With my darling Michael Ausiello as editor-in-chief, this website has quickly become one of my favorites. Michael knows the biz better than just about anyone and his renewal scorecard is usually very accurate. He's really one of the best and most trusted names on my list, so it's pretty safe to defer to his expertise, even thought I'll be offering my own assessments below. Even better, he updates the scorecard periodically, so in the event that new information becomes available, he adjusts his predictions accordingly.

  • Metacritic TV Cancellation Watch
    For a more comprehensive analysis of each show's chances for survival, this is a great website. They've taken predictions from several reliable sources and created a grid of expert predictions. Some of the individual predictions are completely off the reservation (someone actually thinks No Ordinary Family has a chance in hell?), but you can see all the predictions collectively as well, which gives an overall impression of the show's chances. It makes for an interesting read, but as far as I know, it won't be updating as the season goes on, so some of the predictions may be invalidated without any changes to the site.
Well, there you have it from the other experts. Here are my expert thoughts on who'll make it and who's a goner... (I'm only including scripted programming and I'm excluding shows that are obviously going to be picked up--check those two websites if you're unsure which ones those are.)

VERY LIKELY RENEWAL
  • Desperate Housewives
    It was conspicuously missing from ABC's early pick-up list, but that has more to do with contract negotiations than anything else. Assuming they can iron out the details, and I fully suspect they will (let's face it, Hollywood isn't exactly knocking down those actors' doors), it'll be back.

  • The Good Wife
    Compared to other CBS shows, The Good Wife's ratings leave a bit to be desired. Actually, in terms of total viewers, it's quite strong, but in terms of key demo numbers, it could stand to be a lot higher. That said, it's their only critically acclaimed series and the only show on their entire slate that deserves such praise. I can't say it'll stay on Tuesday nights, but I'm confident it'll be back next season. The CBS brass loves the show and in spite of the ratings, they know they've got something no other big four network has. Class.

  • Hawaii Five-0
    While not quite as obvious a pick-up as Mike & Molly, I think Alex O'Loughlin can breathe a sigh of relief for once. I'd be really surprised if this one didn't come back. On any other network, it would be a clear no-brainer pick-up, but with CBS, there's always a chance that as high as your ratings are, they could be higher...

  • Nikita
    A lot of bloggers have given this show a more fretful prognosis, but I'm confident it'll be back. It's numbers aren't great (even by CW standards), but with Smallville ending and Supernatural and One Tree Hill aging horribly, I think Nikita will make it. It better is all I can say. In their corner? The showrunners behind The Vampire Diaries love Nikita, and I like to think they have some sway with the powers-that-be.

  • Harry's Law
    The key demo numbers could certainly be better, but overall, this is one of the very few bright spots in NBC's pilot season. If the numbers start to slide, that's another story, but at this point, I think it'll be fine.

  • Parenthood
    It's numbers have stabilized in a place that I think NBC must be happy with, so I think it's chances are quite good. Unfortunately, the show it self is quite painful to watch these days. I hate to break up with it.
COULD GO EITHER WAY
  • Blue Bloods
    It's a tough call between The Good Wife and Blue Bloods in terms of numbers. Based on ratings, they're neck and neck, but I think if it boils down to one or the other, CBS will make the right call and pick up The Good Wife. The problem for CBS is that they're simply too successful. They have too many highly-rated shows for too little space on the air. (Which isn't to say their shows are all worth-watching, but simply, that middle America does.)

  • Better with You
    It's not doing well, but it's a half-hour comedy, so it might get a pass.

  • Brothers and Sisters
    It's an aging series, with sinking ratings, but ABC doesn't exactly have a lot of established shows to hang its hat on these days, so I'd say it's a toss up. It'll depend on how Body of Proof performs and what their pilot slate looks like for fall. I'd err on the side of a pick-up though.

  • Mr. Sunshine
    It's really too early to tell with this one, but based on it's first two weeks of numbers, it's a toss up. It premiered to excellent numbers, but fell steeply in its second week. If the slide continues, it'll likely get cancelled, but if it can stay roughly where it currently is, it should be fine.

  • V
    Its numbers have actually been a lot higher and more stable than I ever would have expected, but they're still not spectacular or anything. This one's a toss-up. If I had to make a prediction, I'd say it'll be cancelled.

  • $#*! My Dad Says
    God I hope this sucker gets cancelled, but it's a half-hour comedy with decent enough ratings, so it could go either way.

  • The Chicago Code
    It pains me to acknowledge it, but the future of this show is by no means certain. It's too early to tell for sure, but based on the first two sets of numbers, it's going to be a nail-biter for this show. If it can stay where it is with the ratings, it'll be back, but if it slides again next week, it probably won't make it. Boo.

  • Chuck
    Chuck's on the bubble?! I'm shocked! The weird thing is, this is the most favorable it's chances have looked in years. Unfortunately, the show got unwatchable, so I don't really care. A few weeks ago, I would have put this in the "likely to be renewed" category, but it's started sliding bit by bit the past few weeks and it's now in the danger zone. I'd err on the side of a pick-up.

  • Community
    In case you don't watch this show (and based on its ratings, that's most people), this is the best comedy on the air. Yes, it's better than Modern Family, as far as I'm concerned. It's ratings aren't great, but it's a half-hour show on a sinking network, so I think it'll make it. It better make it.
VERY LIKELY TO BE CANCELLED
  • The Defenders
    CBS has too much going for it to keep this dead weight around. I'll be shocked if they keep it on the schedule, even on a Friday.

  • The Event
    I wouldn't say it's completely hopeless (this is NBC we're talking about), but with the new network sheriff in town, I'm pretty sure this one is going to be cancelled.

  • Detroit 1-8-7
    I hear it actually turned into a quality show, but with ratings like these, it would take a miracle to survive. It was all I could do not to put it in the "no chance in hell" category. I don't think this one really has a chance, but it hasn't been pulled from the schedule yet either, so for their sakes, here's hoping for a long shot.

  • No Ordinary Family
    Decent concept, horrendous cast and execution. I'm not surprised in the least that this show is struggling. Majorly struggling. I don't think it'll be back.

  • Off the Map
    It started out well-enough, but it's been sliding ever since. It's most recent numbers were pretty bleak, even for ABC. I'd be surprised if it eeks out a win. It's a Shonda production though, so if she puts up enough of a fuss, ABC might be browbeaten into keeping it. That'd really be the only way.

  • One Tree Hill
    I think this year might finally be the year. The show is old, and horrendous, and I think the CW finally knows it.

  • Human Target
    I stopped officially following their ratings, but I know they're not good. Really not good. That, plus the fact that Fox has limited space and it's an expensive show to produce and I think this one's a goner.

  • Lie to Me
    This show has been little more than a filler for the past couple of seasons, but I think even that dubious distinction will likely come to an end. I think their only chance is if Fox decides to keep it for midseason next year, in order to replace cancelled new shows. Hey, that's basically what happened last season, so who knows. Personally, I think it's a goner.

  • Traffic Light
    I never even watched the pilot, but I'm hearing its numbers are pretty abysmal. See ya.

  • Perfect Couples
    I only saw the pilot, and that was plenty. I think it's a goner.
NO CHANCE IN HELL OF RENEWAL
  • The Cape
    I hate to break it to fans out there (although based on the shows numbers, I'm thinking they don't actually exist), but there's no way this sucker is coming back next year. Even NBC isn't that desperate. Hell, I'm not sure the CW is that desperate.

  • Chase
    It's already essentially been canceled, in case the two people out there who watched the show hadn't noticed.

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